China Clean-Tech Exports to Cut Emissions Equal to Brazil's Total in 2026, Analysis Finds

China's exports of solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and batteries this year will cut carbon emissions outside its borders by an amount equal to Brazil's entire annual emissions from fossil fuels, according to a new analysis published ahead of next month's COP31 climate summit. The Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air estimates the avoided emissions at 450 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, about 2 percent of the world's annual emissions outside China.

The figure is up from 370 million tons last year, more than the United Kingdom emits from fossil fuels in a year. Solar power accounts for the largest share, and most of the benefit lands in the Global South, where sunny countries are cleaning up fossil-heavy grids with imported equipment. The report says the climate savings already outweigh the emissions from manufacturing the panels, turbines and batteries, with a payback time of roughly six months, and that over their working lives the 2026 exports could avoid 8,400 million tons of CO2, as much as the United States and India emit from fossil fuels in a year.

The analysis also pushes back on fears about overcapacity, finding that China's green exports have largely created new markets rather than displacing existing producers, although falling prices have squeezed the revenues of established manufacturers. China has described clean-tech tariffs as a new obstacle to climate action and says it will raise the issue at COP31.

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