IMF Raises Pakistan's Inflation Forecast to 9.9%, Cites War-Driven Energy Costs
The International Monetary Fund has raised Pakistan's inflation forecast to 9.9% for the current fiscal year, up from 8.4%, in its latest World Economic Outlook — a tougher outlook than the government's 8.2% target. The lender kept its growth projection at 3.5%, below the government's ambition of stronger expansion.
The Fund pointed to the Middle East conflict and its effect on energy supplies and prices, a painful channel for Pakistan, which imports most of its fuel. The government has been passing higher international fuel costs to consumers while collecting heavy taxes — and has introduced a monthly Rs 2,000–3,000 fuel assistance scheme that the IMF reportedly called too broad and too costly.
The revised outlook could renew pressure on the State Bank to keep interest rates high. One small bright spot: the IMF expects unemployment to ease to 6.5%, suggesting jobs are still being created even as growth stays moderate.
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