Pakistan Braces for 22% Water Shortfall in Rabi Season, Wheat Crop at Risk

Water flows over a dam spillway in Pakistan

Pakistan's farmers are heading into the winter planting season with far less water than they need. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has projected a 22 percent shortage of irrigation water for the 2026–27 Rabi season, which runs from October 1 to March 31.

The shortfall hits hardest in Punjab and Sindh, the two provinces that grow most of the country's wheat. Under the approved plan, Pakistan will have about 29.18 million acre-feet of water available against projected river inflows of just 21.27 million acre-feet. Punjab will receive 15.56 MAF and Sindh 11.75 MAF, with smaller allocations for Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. IRSA says the estimate will be reviewed periodically as inflows change.

The forecast follows a weak Kharif season, when river inflows came in 22 percent below last year and reservoir storage fell to 9.34 MAF — far short of last year's 13.21 MAF. The authority also urged WAPDA to accelerate the delayed Tarbela 4th and 5th extension projects, saying construction delays worsened shortages this year. With the winter wheat harvest feeding millions, provincial agriculture departments are already warning farmers to prepare for tight supplies.

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