Pakistan's Economic Recovery Story Challenged as Revised Figures Raise Questions

Pakistan

Pakistan's official economic recovery story is facing fresh scrutiny after new figures from the country's National Accounts Committee contradicted the government's earlier claim that the economy had stabilised. According to a new report, the committee recorded growth of just 2.0 per cent in the final quarter of the last financial year, revised the annual figure down to 3.65 per cent, and added as much as $14.8 billion to recorded imports across five financial years.

The revised import numbers matter because they undercut the external accounts that were presented as proof of stabilisation. The report argues that the improvement shown on paper was based on figures that did not hold up, and notes that a finance ministry committee found discrepancies of roughly $18.13 billion between import data compiled through different official systems, with the annual gap widening from $1.4 billion in FY2021 to $6.22 billion in FY2025.

The International Monetary Fund's regional assessment this month also declined to endorse Pakistan's official account on almost every count, the report says. The IMF projects a current account deficit near 1 per cent of output, roughly $4.5 billion, against Islamabad's estimate of about $2.5 billion, and warns the external position will weaken further as imports rise and remittances moderate. Its growth forecast of 3.5 per cent sits below the official 4 per cent, while fourth-quarter data showed industry contracting 4.7 per cent and electricity, gas and water supply shrinking 33.2 per cent.

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