Pakistan's Growth Halves to 2% as Hormuz Crisis Chokes LNG Supplies

Pakistan

Pakistan's economic recovery has taken a sharp hit as the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis drives up energy costs and disrupts gas supplies. Official data released on Monday showed GDP growth slowed to just 2.0 percent in the April-June quarter of fiscal year 2026, less than half the 4.42 percent recorded in the previous quarter and well below the 3.5 percent economists had expected. The National Accounts Committee also trimmed full-year growth to 3.65 percent, slightly down from the earlier 3.70 percent estimate.

The industrial sector bore the brunt of the slowdown, contracting 4.7 percent in the quarter, while agriculture and services each grew by more than 3.5 percent. With LNG traffic through the Strait of Hormuz severely disrupted, Pakistan — which sourced 99 percent of its LNG imports from Qatar under term contracts last year — has been forced into expensive spot purchases, pushing power generation costs higher and threatening to raise the import bill beyond $1 billion for the coming months.

The head of Pakistan's state-owned LNG importer has warned of challenging winter months ahead, with potential natural gas shortages looming. The figures put the size of the economy at Rs126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, with per capita income of Rs531,897 ($1,896). For the full fiscal year, the revised data showed agriculture growing 3.5 percent, industry 3.34 percent, and services 3.81 percent.

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