Pakistan's Inflation Projected at 10.5% in October as Reserves Rise to $21.5 Billion

Pakistan's Inflation Projected at 10.5% in October as Reserves Rise to $21.5 Billion

Pakistan's inflation is projected in the range of 9.5 to 10.5 per cent for October 2026, according to the Finance Division's Monthly Economic Update and Outlook for October, as the economy consolidates stability in the first quarter of the 2026-27 fiscal year. The report points to improved external financing, better Kharif harvests and strong automobile and cement activity, while flagging geopolitical tensions, volatile oil prices and trade disruptions as the main risks ahead.

The external picture showed both progress and pressure. The current account deficit stood at $874 million in July-September, up from $755 million a year earlier, as goods imports grew 14.3 per cent to $17.8 billion — outpacing a 7.7 per cent rise in exports to $8.5 billion. Workers' remittances, however, rose 14 per cent to $10.9 billion, more than covering the combined goods and services trade deficit, and the State Bank's liquid reserves reached $21.5 billion on 16 October, with the rupee at Rs276.8 to the dollar on 28 October.

On the fiscal side, tax collection grew 7 per cent to Rs3,086.2 billion in the quarter, beating its target, while food exports jumped 25.3 per cent on strong rice sales and textile exports gained 5.3 per cent. A $3 billion sovereign Eurobond issued in September helped deliver a balance of payments surplus of $3.1 billion, against a deficit of $274 million in the same quarter last year. For households, though, the report is a reminder that slower inflation does not mean lower prices — food, electricity and transport costs remain the daily test of any recovery.

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