US GDP and PCE Inflation Data Due Today as Markets Watch for December Rate Hike Signal

US GDP and PCE Inflation Data Due Today as Markets Watch for December Rate Hike Signal

The United States releases two of its most important economic reports on Thursday, October 29: the first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Together, they will shape expectations for whether the Fed raises interest rates again in December.

Growth is expected to look strong. Economists expect the advance GDP estimate to show growth of about 3.0% to 3.2% on an annualised basis, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker was at 3.5% as of October 20. Strong business equipment spending linked to artificial intelligence is helping, though analysts will look closely at consumer spending, investment and trade to judge how solid the headline number really is.

Inflation is the bigger question. Markets expect September headline PCE to rise 0.5% for the month, taking the yearly rate from 3.4% to about 3.6%, with core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rising 0.3% for the month to about 3.1% from a year earlier. That would come just a day after the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4%, and a hotter-than-expected reading would strengthen the case for a December hike, while a softer reading would ease pressure on households and markets alike.

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